College Choice
Good students tend to pick good schools. This selection mechanism makes it incredibly hard to estimate what effect education actually has. That graduates from some programs earn more could be because their skills improved more in school (a causal effect of education), but it could also be because they were more talented to start with (selection). In this research program I use statistical techniques to properly estimate the component that is causal.
To do so, I make use of archived applications to Swedish universities going back all the way to 1977. When there are more applicants than available spots, the system admits those with the highest scores. This creates natural experiments that I can exploit. For each program, some students end up above the cutoff and others end up below. Since the exact cutoffs changes from year to year, it is impossible to know beforehand if one will be admitted, and admission among those close to the cutoff can be considered random. Using data around the cutoff like an experiment is called a regression discontinuity design and is a powerful tool for causal identification. It is the backbone of all studies in this research program.
My work on this topic is supported by IFAU (152/2020), The Jan Wallander and Tom Hedelius Foundation (W18-0005) and Forte (2016-07099).
Work in Progress
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Inheritance of fields of study
Submitted. Winner of the Distinguished CESifo Affiliate Award 2023.Children of university graduates are twice as likely to earn a degree in their parent's field. I link Swedish university applicants from 1977–1992 to their children's later outcomes and exploit admission thresholds in a fuzzy regression discontinuity design. When a parent earns a degree in a broad field, the probability that the child later graduates from that field rises by 4.6 percentage points (46%). Parental STEM enrollment raises children's math scores by 0.18 standard deviations, but children who follow a parent earn about 30% lower returns to their field choice. Transmission is especially strong when parents choose gender-atypical fields.
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Business Education and Portfolio Returns
Submitted.with Thomas Jansson and Yigitcan KarabulutUsing university admission cutoffs that generate exogenous variation in college-major choices, we provide causal evidence that enrollment in a business or economics program leads individuals to invest significantly more in the stock market, earn higher portfolio returns, and ultimately accumulate higher levels of wealth later in life. Underlying these effects, beyond differences in risk-taking, innate ability, labor market outcomes, or scale effects, is the enhanced ability of business educated individuals to acquire and process economic information and make informed investment decisions. Early investments in financial literacy thus play an important role in generating higher returns that significantly alter individuals' life-cycle wealth profiles.
Publications
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O Brother, Where Start Thou? Sibling Spillovers on College and Major Choice in Four Countries
Quarterly Journal of Economics, 2021with Andres Barrios-Fernandez, Marin Drlje, Joshua Goodman, Michael Hurwitz, Dejan Kovac, Christine Mulhern, Christopher Neilson, and Jonathan SmithFamily and social networks are widely believed to influence important life decisions, but causal identification of those effects is notoriously challenging. Using data from Chile, Croatia, Sweden, and the United States, we study within-family spillovers in college and major choice across a variety of national contexts. Exploiting college-specific admissions thresholds that directly affect older but not younger siblings' college options, we show that in all four countries a meaningful portion of younger siblings follow their older sibling to the same college or college-major combination. Older siblings are followed regardless of whether their target and counterfactual options have large, small, or even negative differences in quality. Spillover effects disappear, however, if the older sibling drops out of college, suggesting that older siblings' college experiences matter. That siblings influence important human capital investment decisions across such varied contexts suggests that our findings are not an artifact of particular institutional detail but a more generalizable description of human behavior. Causal links between the postsecondary paths of close peers may partly explain persistent college enrollment inequalities between social groups, and this suggests that interventions to improve college access may have multiplier effects.